Last week showed Connacht have the tools to beat the best, but still have a fair way to go to make that leap to the next tier. For the first time this season they came away from a game with no match or bonus points to show as Leinster won 12-33. Connacht chose to play into the gale in the 1st half but managed the conditions poorly. Mainly through poor exit choice more so than execution. Leinster showed in the second half what to do, as it felt like they were making twice as much distance from kicks than Connacht. The biggest disappointment from last week for me was the execution rate, 12 points with 60% possession, 35 defenders beaten and 9 line breaks isn’t good enough. It does show that Leinster’s scramble is incredible and rabid, but Connacht need to do better in those situations. There’s more to come from this squad but Connacht need to exert more control on games, play in the right areas more, and most importantly stop coughing up the ball needlessly. A big improvement needed is with in the tackle success rate, in Round 5 they missed 18 tackles and conceded eight initial break for a 72.1% return.
This weekend poses a different challenge, but one they have the tools to overcome.
Three changes in the pack this week Peter Dooley and Dylan Tierney-Martin coming into the front row for their first starts of the season, while Niall Murray replaces his brother Darragh in the second row. All three will bring an energy that will be needed to carry hard and secure good ball. The backrow are all performing well Sean O’Brien with his first try of the season last week. Boyle is looking like he’s getting back to his rampaging best. I am enjoying the evolution of Cian Prendregast as captain his communication style with referees is solid but the responsibility hasn’t reduced the impact of his own game.
The bench will need to replicate the impact it has been bringing over the early part of the season. Sean Jansen especially brought great power in attack against Leinster and Connacht will be looking to him to replicate it again Saturday night
Cathal Forde, Caolin Blade, and Jack Carty all come in to the starting 15. Forde (IMO) unlucky not to be in the most recent Ireland squad starts at 13 outside Bundee Aki. That’s a powerful and skillful partnership that will cause Dragons real issues. As not only will they sit down the defence but they both have the ability to unlock a defence with good passing. Blade and Carty start together, which should bring a bit more control to the attack. I’d like to see Connacht play more in the right areas and that kicking game from Jack should move the team up the field. With Ioane to come on against tired legs theres a real 1-2 punch there. Murphy is out of the 23 for the first time this season as Devine is given the opportunity to show what he is about. There’s no change in the back three and you would think Bolton is itching to keep showing why he’s in that Ireland conversation. Hugh Gavin had a tough debut even with some nice touches last Saturday, if Connacht have a good platform to play off when he comes on, he should have the space to show off his abilities.
Dragons travel to Galway looking for their second win of the season, after beating the Ospreys in Rd 1. They will be on the hunt for their first away win from home in the BKT URC since their trip to the Scarlets in April 2022. And their first win over Connacht since their 22-35 win at the Dexcom Stadium in October 2021. Apart from their match vs Leinster they have been competitive in their losses, earning losing bonus points vs the Sharks and Lions, while scoring an average of 23 points in their four home games.
There is pace on the wing with Dyer looking threatening as usual when given the space, and they have more control from half back than previous seasons. To the point that Rhodri Williams (on the bench) has been recalled on to the Wales squad after a gap of more than 10 years. The breakdown will be key The Dragons won the joint-most turnovers (eight) in Round 5. So if Dragons can slow or steal Connacht ball and ruin the flow they will look to build, it will go a long way in keeping them in the fight.
Both teams have different needs from this game. Can Dragons do enough to get a needed win? Or will Connacht have enough to end this block on a high?
Dragons Team
Backs: Cai Evans, Rio Dyer, Joe Westwood, Aneurin Owen, Ewan Rosser, Angus O’Brien, Dane Blacker
Forwards: Cameron Jones, Oli Burrows, Chris Coleman, Ben Carter (CAPT), Matthew Screech, Shane Lewis-Hughes, Harri Keddie, Aaron Wainwright
Replacements: Brodie Coghlan, Aki Seiuli, Luke Yendle, Steve Cummins, Taine Basham, Rhodri Williams, Lloyd Evans, Harry Wilson
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR, 33rd league game)
AR 1: Dan Carson (IRFU) AR 2: Sam Holt (IRFU)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (FIR)
Live on: TG4, S4C, Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv
THE 2ND ROW 